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Release date: June 19, 2007 Early Forecast Calls for Dems in 2008
Abramowitz based his forecast on his time-for-change model, which has predicted the winner of the popular vote within two percentage points in every presidential election since 1988. The model predicts the popular vote for president before the national nominating conventions based on three factors: the current president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the first half of the election year, and the length of time that the president's party has controlled the White House. His analysis found that based on President Bush's current approval rating, the recent growth rate of the economy, and the fact that the Republican Party will have controlled the White House for eight years, the Democratic nominee would be predicted to win the national popular vote by a comfortable margin. "The good news for Democrats is that 2008, unlike 2004, will be a time-for-change election, one in which the president's party has controlled the White House for two or more terms," Abramowitz says. For the Republican nominee to have a reasonable chance of winning the 2008 presidential election there would have to be a dramatic improvement in President Bush's approval rating during the next 12 months, Abramowitz said. "It's very early to be making any forecasts, and much can change between now and then. The economy could grow briskly during the first two quarters of 2008. President Bush's approval rating could show substantial improvement," Abramowitz says. However, unless the president's net approval rating is at least in the neutral range, with as many Americans approving of his performance as disapproving, it will be almost impossible for any Republican nominee to win, he says. "President Bush's approval rating has not been in the neutral range for more than two years and, if anything, has been falling in recent weeks amidst growing public controversy over the war in Iraq and the president's immigration proposals," Abramowitz says. "While the 2008 election is still a long way off, a dramatic turnaround in the president's approval rating by next June appears unlikely and that is bad news for all of the candidates seeking the Republican presidential nomination." Abramowitz will deliver a paper on his forecast during the 27th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, June 24-27 in New York. ### Emory University is one of the nation's leading private research universities and a member of the Association of American Universities. Known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities, Emory is ranked as one of the country's top 20 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system. Subscribe to News@Emory RSS feeds for automatic updates of the latest news at Emory. |
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