Release date: Sept. 29, 2006

Falling Gas Prices No Boost to Bush, Abramowitz Finds

Contact: Elaine Justice, 404-727-0643 or elaine.justice@emory.edu
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark, 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Since August, President George W. Bush's approval ratings have gone up as gas prices have gone down. Many political analysts and the public see a connection between the two, but a recent analysis by Emory political scientist and national polling expert Alan Abramowitz found that gas prices have actually had little or no effect on the president’s popularity.

Abramowitz looked at the relationship between monthly changes in gas prices and monthly changes in Bush approval since 9-11. “The correlation between changes in gas prices and changes in approval is actually zero,” according to Abramowitz, Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory.

Since 9-11, President Bush’s popularity has fallen as a result of the erosion of the huge post 9-11 rally, growing public discontent over the war in Iraq, scandals involving prominent Republican officials and other issues, Abramowitz says. At the same time, the price of gasoline has been rising as a result of growing worldwide demand, production and distribution problems in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and other factors. However, the apparent relationship between gasoline prices and Bush approval is entirely spurious.

Abramowitz's analysis also found Bush's natural equilibrium point--where he should tend to end up, all other things being equal -- and it is just under a 42 percent approval rating, close to where he is now.

"Given these findings, it seems unlikely that declining gasoline prices have been responsible for the modest increase in those poll numbers in recent weeks -- or that further declines will boost the president and his party in November," Abramowitz says.

Abramowitz’s analysis of the relationship between gas prices and the president’s approval rating will be published in The Cook Political Report, one of the nation’s most respected political newsletters.

Contact Abramowitz directly at 404-727-0108, or polsaa@emory.edu.

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