Release date: Feb. 4, 2008
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Independents Hold the Cards for Super Tuesday

Independents are playing a major role in the presidential nomination race in both parties, and could make the difference in a win or loss for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz.

On the Republican side, independent voters are largely responsible for John McCain's emergence as the frontrunner for the nomination. In all three of his primary victories, in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, self-identified independents provided him with his margin of victory according to network exit polls, says Abramowitz, the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory, and a renowned expert on national politics and elections.

McCain's big margins among these independent voters were large enough in those states to compensate for the fact that he ran behind or even with his leading opponents among self-identified Republicans. In New Hampshire, independents made up 37 percent of Republican primary voters and their strong support for McCain was enough to overcome a small lead for Mitt Romney among Republicans, he says.

"Even in Florida, a state with a closed primary, self-identified independents made up 17 percent of Republican primary voters and they favored McCain by a 20-point margin over his chief rival, Mitt Romney," Abramowitz says. Among self-identified Republicans who made up 80 percent of Republican primary voters in Florida, in contrast, McCain finished in a tie with Romney.

"Looking ahead to Super Tuesday, John McCain's strong appeal to independent voters will continue to be important to his success. However, in order to win most of these primaries, McCain will have to at least hold down Mitt Romney's margin among the large majority of self-identified Republicans," Abramowitz says.

On the Democratic side, independent voters have also been participating in the primaries and they have given Barack Obama a boost in several of the early contests. They gave him big margins over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire where they made up over 40 percent of the Democratic primary voters, but it wasn't quite enough to offset Clinton's lead among self-identified Democrats.

"On Super Tuesday, independents could make a difference for Obama in a number of states where the contest appears to be very close," Abramowitz says. "But Obama will need to improve his performance among self-identified Democrats for independent voters to sway the outcome in most states."

More Emory election experts

Emory University is one of the nation's leading private research universities and a member of the Association of American Universities. Known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities, Emory is ranked as one of the country's top 20 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system.

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