Release date: Sept. 24, 2004

Debates Could Swing Election, Says Emory's Abramowitz

Contact:
Beverly Clark, 404-712-8780 (w), 404-275-4771 (c) or beverly.clark@emory.edu
Elaine Justice, 404-727-0643 (w), 404-520-4325 (c) or elaine.justice@emory.edu

The debates this year will undoubtedly play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election, and the first debate should spark fireworks over Iraq and the war on terrorism, says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz, an expert on national elections and polling.

With the first debate focusing on national security and foreign policy, Kerry has an opportunity to close the gap in voter perceptions between himself and President Bush, Abramowitz says. This is the area of greatest strength for Bush according to recent polls, and if Kerry can come across as tough and decisive, he could make some gains, Abramowitz says.

"Challengers usually benefit from being on the same stage with the incumbent, and expectations for Bush will not be as low this time as in 2000--he's the president now and is expected to display a command of the issues, especially on foreign policy. Above all, Bush needs to appear comfortable in defending his policies--not defensive," Abramowitz says. "Appearance, mannerisms, style and personality count for as much or more in these events as substance, so Kerry can't afford to come across as "too intellectual" or condescending, as Al Gore did in the first 2000 debate."

Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 or alan.abramowitz@emory.edu.

For more political news, visit the election news page.

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