Release date: July 6, 2005

Bush Will Shape His Legacy With Supreme Court Nominee, Says Emory's Abramowitz

Contact:
Elaine Justice: 404-727-0643, elaine.justice@emory.edu
Beverly Clark: 404-712-8780, beverly.clark@emory.edu

The retirement of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor from the U.S. Supreme Court gives President Bush an opportunity to shape the future of American politics for decades to come, with many implications for future elections, says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz, an expert on national politics.

"In making a Supreme Court appointment, the president has to be concerned with more than just rewarding social conservatives for their past support," Abramowitz says. "He has to be concerned with the future of his domestic agenda, the 2006 midterm elections, and his own legacy. As a result, efforts by social conservatives to lobby against the appointment of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to the Court may backfire."

Religious conservatives don't trust Gonzales because he was considered a moderate on the Texas Supreme Court and he has supported abortion rights. However, Gonzales is very close to President Bush and the White House and its allies in the Senate have already signaled social conservatives to back off on their attacks on the attorney general, he says.

"Nominating a moderate conservative who also happens to be Hispanic would have a number of advantages for the president. First, it would reduce the likelihood of a knock-down, drag-out battle or even a Democratic filibuster in the Senate that could tie up the rest of the President's agenda for months," Abramowitz says. "Second, it could reinforce the president's strategy of reaching out to the nation's fastest-growing voting bloc--Hispanics. Third, it would reduce the likelihood that the court would actually vote to overturn Roe v. Wade--an outcome that may fill the hearts of the president's political advisors with dread because it could lead to a mobilization of pro-choice voters on behalf of Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008."

Reach Abramowitz at 404-307-7348 (cell), 603-646-2026 (w) or alan.abramowitz@emory.edu.

Robert Schapiro, professor of law at Emory University School of Law and former clerk to Justice John Paul Stevens, also is available to comment on Justice O'Connor's legacy and the impact of nominees on the future of the U.S. Supreme Court. Reach Schapiro at 404-727-1103 or rschapir@law.emory.edu.

Back