Release date: July 20, 2004
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark, Assistant Director, University Media Relations,
at 404-712-8780 or bclark2@emory.edu

The Edwards Bounce: Real or Imaginary?

While media commentators and pundits continue to debate whether or not John Kerry had a "bounce" in the polls from his selection of Sen. John Edwards as his running-mate, an analysis of polling data by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz shows that Kerry did indeed get a boost from his pick.

Instead of comparing polls conducted by a single media outlet or polling firm, Abramowitz compared all of the national polls conducted in the month preceding Edwards' selection with all of the national polls conducted after the announcement, up through July 17. "By averaging the results of all of these polls we can obtain a much more accurate measure of support for the Democratic and Republican tickets than by relying on polls conducted by a single media outlet or polling firm," he says.

In the 20 pre-Edwards polls, Kerry led George Bush by an average of 1.1 percentage points; in the nine post-Edwards polls, Kerry led Bush by an average of 5.2 percentage points. "The average increase of 4.1 percentage points in Kerry's lead since his selection of Edwards is highly significant -- statistically speaking, the probability that a shift of this magnitude could occur by chance is less than one in a hundred," Abramowitz says. "Now it remains to be seen if the Edwards bounce lasts."

Abramowitz is a well known expert on national politics and elections and the author of "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States." His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 or alan.abramowitz@emory.edu.

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