Release date: Sept. 16, 2005
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Bush's Poll Numbers Hint at Problems for GOP in 2006

President George W. Bush meets Maryland Transportation Authority police officers on July 20, 2005 at the Port of Baltimore in Baltimore, Md. ( White House photo by Eric Draper)

According to recent polls, less than half of Americans approve of President George Bush's performance – which is especially low for a reelected president this early in a second term, says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz, an expert on national elections. This could signal danger for Republicans in the 2006 midterm election, particularly if the economy slows down and/or any new scandals erupt involving prominent Republicans, he says.

"Since World War II, we have a seen a correlation between approval ratings of a sitting president and the outcome of midterm elections. When a president's approval rating is below 50 percent -- and President Bush is polling at about 40 percent -- the president's party has tended to lose a significant number of seats in Congress," Abramowtiz says. "While there is the potential for a significant shift in Congress, what's different from previous elections is that there are far fewer truly competitive districts than there were a decade ago."

A recent analysis of National Election Studies data by Abramowitz found President George W. Bush to be the most polarizing candidate in modern American history, and the public opinion of the president remains deeply divided, he says. "Even as his approval ratings have gone down, there remains a tremendous partisan divide around President Bush. Nearly every major issue in this country is a partisan issue, and it's due to how people view the president," says Abramowitz.

Bush's candidacy drove record numbers of voters to the polls in 2004, and while voter turnout likely won't be as high in 2006 since Bush won't be on the ballot, the public will remain deeply divided in their opinions of Bush's administration, which may drive more political participation than is normally seen in a midterm elections, he says.

For more on Abramowitz's analysis of the 2004 election, go here.

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