Release date: Aug. 6, 2004

Bush Favored to Win in November – But Barely

Contact:
Elaine Justice, 404-727-0643, ejustic@emory.edu
Deb Hammacher, 404-727-0644, deb.hammacher@emory.edu

Despite mediocre approval ratings and below average economic growth, President George W. Bush has a good chance of winning a second term in the White House according to the "time-for-change" forecasting model used by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. The forecasting model has correctly predicted the popular vote winner in every presidential election since 1988.

The economy, presidential approval ratings and the number of terms a party has been in power are the three key factors Abramowitz uses to forecast presidential outcomes. "The fact that President Bush is a first-term incumbent--that Republicans just took control four years ago--is his main advantage," Abramowitz says. The forecasting model predicts that Bush will receive 53.7 percent of the major party vote in the 2004 presidential election, plus or minus two percentage points.

Based on the assumption that a presidential election is fundamentally a referendum on the performance of the incumbent, the "time-for-change" model factors in:

• the approval rating in the final Gallup Poll in June,

• the change in real gross domestic product during the first two quarters of the election year, and

• a variable based on whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for only one term or longer.

This final variable, the time-for-change factor, plays a critical role in the model because a first-term incumbent like Bush generally enjoys a large advantage compared with a candidate whose party has held the White House for two terms or longer. Since 1900, only one first-term incumbent, Jimmy Carter, has been defeated.

However, Bush's current approval rating is far below the average for incumbents running for re-election, Abramowitz says. In addition, the estimated 3.75 percent growth rate of the U.S. economy during the first half of 2004 is below the average of 4.5 percent for all presidential election years since World War II.

"Bush enjoys overwhelming support from his party faithful but he is not getting anywhere near the level of support that a first-term incumbent typically gets from independents and opposing partisans," Abramowitz says.

"Because of the current polarization of the U.S. electorate, I think it's unlikely that he will receive anything close to 53.7 percent of the major party vote in November. It may that the 'time-for-change' model may chalk up its first erroneous prediction."

Abramowitz's findings will be published in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics. For a full version of his report, click here.

Abramowitz is a nationally known expert on national politics and elections and the author of "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States." His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 or alan.abramowitz@emory.edu.

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