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Release date: Dec. 15, 2003 Emory Experts on What's Next for Saddam Hussein
Contact: The capture of Saddam Hussein by U.S. military forces will have an impact on many arenas, from the political climate within Iraq to President Bush's approval rating to the U.S. presidential race. The possible ramifications-- including how, when and where Saddam should be tried--will be debated in the coming weeks and several Emory University experts can weigh in on a number of these questions. Political scientist Alan Abramowitz says he expects the capture will give Bush a short-term boost in popularity, "but whether that lasts or not depends on what comes after: whether we get new information on weapons of mass destruction, or there is a significant reduction in the attacks on U.S. and allied forces in the next several weeks. I don't think it will have much impact on the dynamics of the Democratic race." According to Abramowitz, those who support Howard Dean, who has been the most outspoken critic of the war, aren't going to change their minds over this; they still think the war was not justified. "If Hussein's capture leads to revelations or a sudden discovery of wmd or that there was a tie between Saddam and 9/11, then it could have more of an impact on the Democratic race and on domestic politics." Abramowitz is the Alben Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory. Contact him at 404-727-0108 or polsaa@emory.edu. ***** David Bederman, professor of international law at Emory, can discuss implications of a trial for Saddam Hussein, including trial venue, the legality of a war crimes trial, whether the tribunal will be national or international in scope, historical precedents, and possible punishment including the death penalty. Bederman, who has been a litigation consultant to the U.S. departments of Justice, State, Treasury and other federal agencies, served as legal advisor at the Iran-U.S. Claims Tribunal in The Hague. He also has successfully argued two recent cases before the U.S. Supreme Court. Contact Bederman at 404-727-6822 or lawdjb@law.emory.edu. **** Gordon Newby, professor of Middle Eastern studies, says, "It's going to be crucial that Saddam Hussein first be tried by an Iraqi civil court for crimes committed against Iraq. He shouldn't be tried in The Hague because he could stand defiant and say he was tough on his people to create a unified state." Newby thinks the capture offers an important symbolic moment because it shows that America is capable of exerting its force and ability in the region to get inside his network, break it apart and capture him. Perhaps more importantly, it erases those fears held by some that if the U.S. was driven out, Hussein could come back to power. Newby points out an important development in the information and propaganda angle: Al-Jazeera and other Arab television stations showed the cheering in Baghdad. "This means it is harder to make the argument, in the face of that video, that the people were happy with Saddam and hoped for his return." He cautions that this doesn't mean that the attacks against U.S. forces are going to go away, however. First, anti-American sentiment is so endemic in the Arab and Islamic world, and second, there is such a wide circle of people whose livelihood depended on Hussein's regime who now have absolutely nothing to lose. "We are talking about a lot of people--far beyond the deck of cards--who supported Hussein's regime and are faced with a new Iraq, one with a Shiite majority, in which they will be tried for war crimes if caught. I think you will see some of these people come forward to negotiate some immunity for themselves, but for the rest, they have a life investment in making sure the U.S. doesn't succeed in its enterprise." Newby is director of Emory's Institute for Comparative and International Study and author of "A Concise Encyclopedia of Islam" (2002). Contact him at 404-727-2717 or gdnewby@emory.edu. **** Political scientist Larry Taulbee thinks the security situation may improve a bit in the short term, but the overall situation may be even more troublesome in the long run without the prospect of Hussein returning. "I think it may diffuse the opposition of Saddam loyalists, but on the other hand, the internal factions--the tribal and religious factions--may be emboldened now that they know there is no chance Hussein will be back. The whole ball of wax is up for grabs. No one knows at this point whether it will be possible to keep a lid on that. The real difficulty is that this may be a case where you pull out one piece and realize that the bridge is falling apart on the other side." Taulbee is professor of political science, specializing in terrorism, the history of mercenaries, international law and international security. Contact him at 404-727-6571 or psjt@emory.edu. **** Kenneth Stein, Schatten Professor of Contemporary Middle Eastern and Israeli Studies, says that for the last four or five years, Arab media outlets have been writing about the need to reform, so it's not just Western pundits calling for change. "Fifty years ago the Arab world would have been unified in condemnation of the West, but now there is a split. There is a lot of churn going on and I don't think much of the world realizes, or cares, that is going on. The issue at hand is a broader one about Arab autocracy taking a hit with the capture of Saddam. How Iraq is pasted or welded together will go a long way toward showing how the Middle East will move beyond autocracy. When this part of the world moves past super autocratic regimes, there will be more stability for the region and all that comes with it, including more stable oil prices. The mother of all rats has been caught in a hole and it will have an impact on what happens to the Middle East in the long run, 10 years from now." Stein also directs the Middle East Research Center at Emory, is a fellow of The Carter Center and has been an adviser to former President Jimmy Carter on Middle East affairs since 1983. Contact him at 404-727-2798 (days) or 404-252-0011 (evenings). **** Military law expert Charles Shanor says he expects Hussein will get an Iraqi trial. "Since possession is nine-tenths of the law, whoever has him now will likely try him." Shanor says President Bush's statement that the U.S. "will work with the Iraqi people," also signals there will likely be an Iraqi trial. How much supervision will the U.S. have over the process? "The degree might depend on the confidence of the Bush administration in the Iraqi people and processes." What about the execution question? "I'm not sure the Bush administration has a strong stake in that so long as there is closure for the Iraqi people," says Shanor, who teaches a course on law and terrorism and is the author of the recently published book, "National Security and Military Law" (West, 2003). In terms of a trial and whether Hussein also will be subject to an international tribunal, Shanor observes that "there are pluses and minuses to both. Those who favor an international process still see the need for a strong Iraqi presence. Whether the Bush administration and the Iraqis see the need for a strong international presence is a more open question. Since most of Hussein's crimes were against Iraqi citizens, an argument could be made that there is less need for an international tribunal." It's also conceivable that there could be an Iraqi trial and an international tribunal; but since one must come before the other, "there is a possibility that if one venue convicts, the other will have no need to go through the process," says Shanor. Contact Shanor at 404-727-6811 or cshanor@law.emory.edu. ###
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