March 19, 2004

Contact:
Elaine Justice, 404-727-0643, ejustic@emory.edu
Deb Hammacher, 404-727-0644, dhammac@emory.edu

Power Shift Unlikely in 2004 Congressional Races

Although Democrats could possibly win back the Senate this year, don't expect the 2004 elections to create a big shake-up on Capitol Hill, says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. Neither party should pick up enough seats to radically alter the current power structure since Congressional incumbents rarely lose to challengers, he says.

Since 1998, 99 percent of incumbents in the House of Representatives have been re-elected, which makes it difficult for any significant shift in control to occur, explains Abramowitz. In 2002, only four challengers – out of 400 – succeeded in winning a seat. Since 1998, only 16 challengers have beaten out incumbents.

"The biggest factor in why challengers are not successful is money. It takes on average $1 million to win a seat and a vast majority of challengers can't raise enough to threaten an incumbent," Abramowitz says. "The average challenger spent about $70,000, which might buy you a few bumper stickers, but it isn't really enough to mount a strong campaign."
In the Senate, eight seats are open, which gives Democrats a possible chance to regain control of the Senate since the margin is tight, says Abramowitz.

"Although most of the open seats are in fairly conservative, Republican-leaning states, the races promise to be very competitive, opening up the possibility for Democrats to take the lead. The exception is in Georgia, by far the weakest state for the party, where the Democrats have not yet produced a strong candidate," he says. Other states with open Senate seats include South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Colorado, Oklahoma and Illinois.

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