Release date: July 28, 2004
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark, Assistant Director, University Media Relations,
at 404-712-8780 or bclark2@emory.edu

Neither Party Should Expect Much Convention "Bounce"

Photo: Reuters

In the wake of the Democratic National Convention, polls will be analyzed and point shifts picked apart to see how much "bounce" John Kerry received. Historically, candidates tend to go up in the polls after their conventions, but neither party should see a hefty shift in their numbers, says Patrick Noonan, an expert on polling and decision analysis at Emory University's Goizueta Business School.

"One thing that makes this year so unusual is the number of people who are already decided in their vote. As a result, the parties are playing for a small pool of undecided people. Any bounce after the conventions will be small for the Democrats and Republicans, although both parties will be prepared to interpret the numbers to their best advantage," Noonan says.

This year's presidential race is still essentially a dead heat, and impossible to predict at this point, he says. In such a close presidential race, deviations in what the polls report are usually due to margins of error, which can greatly affect accuracy, Noonan explains. Polls also can vary widely in their methodologies and how their representative samples are drawn, both factors in how results are tabulated.

"For now, the polls seem to show a horse race with a lot of action, with approval ratings or possible votes for Kerry going up, or Bush going up and down, but there's really very little going on here. Most of it is just statistical jitter," Noonan says.

Noonan is an associate professor of decision and information analysis. He can be reached at 404-727-0549, or Patrick_Noonan@bus.emory.edu.

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