Emory University News Tip: Early Campaigning

Feb. 24, 2004

Contact:
Elaine Justice, 404-727-0643, ejustic@emory.edu
Deb Hammacher, 404-727-0644, dhammac@emory.edu

Early Campaigning Shows That Bush is Vulnerable

The 2004 presidential campaign will likely set a record for the longest campaign ever, with President George W. Bush now officially campaigning and a Republican media campaign set to start within the week.

"This is very early for an incumbent president to start an active campaign. This obviously indicates that they're worried. They would not be spending money on a media campaign and delivering speeches if they were not vulnerable," says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. In the past, some incumbent presidents have avoided direct campaigning altogether, using a "Rose Garden" strategy of looking and acting presidential and allowing surrogates to do the campaigning, he says.

"He's really been out campaigning all along, raising money and speaking to Republican groups. The difference now is that he is specifically responding to issues and criticism. It's hard to tell how much campaigning and delivering speeches will really help him. The State of the Union was in many ways a campaign speech, and that didn't help him much at all," Abramowitz says.

"What will help him is if between now and November the economy improves, people feel jobs are growing and the situation in Iraq is stabilized and the country doesn't become a haven for terrorism. All of these issues are more critical to his success than what he says on the campaign trail."

Such a long campaign will leave voters even more polarized than they are now, he says, and "by November, everyone will be pretty tired of it."

Abramowitz is a nationally known expert on national politics and elections and the author of the newly published "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States." His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. He can discuss the Democratic primaries, polling results and the general outlook for the 2004 election season. Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 (w), 404-633-7209 (h) or polsaa@emory.edu. Our full list of experts is online at www.emory.edu/central/NEWS/Releases/expertstalk.html.