Feb. 19, 2004

Contact:
Elaine Justice, 404-727-0643, ejustic@emory.edu
Deb Hammacher, 404-727-0644, dhammac@emory.edu

Economic Outlook Should Give Both Parties Pause

Economist Robert Chirinko says that while the sluggish job outlook is a negative for the Bush administration, "the well-documented export of jobs abroad is just reflecting long-term forces of locating production where it can be undertaken most cheaply." On the positive side, he says, the economy is growing as measured by the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), because it's generating "more goods and services without adding workers because workers are being more productive."

Which trend will help put the economy on strong footing this election year, job growth or production growth? "By November, I suspect the job situation will improve so, if I were advising the Democrats, I am not sure I would hang my hat on this issue," says Chirinko. "If past is prologue, cyclical trends—jobs, unemployment and production—will heavily influence the outcome of the fall election."

To reach Chirinko call 404-727-0643.

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