Release date: July 28, 2004

Kerry Should De-emphasize Economic Issues, says Emory Economist

Economist Bob Chirinko warns that Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry is on the wrong track if he hopes to win the election emphasizing economic issues.

"The economy is recovering reasonably well," says Chirinko, especially in pocketbook areas that affect people in some reasonably quick way such as jobs and take-home pay. The continuing increase in consumer confidence, he says, suggests that there is a widespread perception of good economic times ahead.

"Generally speaking, unemployment is falling, the Bush tax cuts are in place, and conditions are improving," says Chirinko. "Economic issues weigh heavily in elections, and the economy's performance is likely to favor Bush in November. Focusing heavily on economic issues is unlikely to be a winning strategy."

While he believes that rescinding the tax cuts on upper income taxpayers is sound, Chirinko is skeptical about Kerry's suggestion to provide corporate incentives for companies who keep jobs from moving overseas, a program that he believes is comparable to standing in front of a moving train. "A lot of companies get tax breaks for things they were going to do anyway," he says.

Calling corporate tax incentives, "basically giveaways," Chirinko says these incentives usually have little impact. "Tax incentives are way down the list of factors driving corporate decision making," he says.

"Redirecting resources to programs that train and educate workers is likely to be far more effective in keeping and creating well-paying jobs in America," says Chirinko. "A skilled workforce can be a powerful magnet for businesses."

Reach Chirinko at 773-525-5410 (h) or rchirin@emory.edu.

For more political news, visit Emory's election news page.

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