Release date: Oct. 17, 2002

Emory Experts Offer Views, Predictions
on Mid-term Elections

Contact:
Elaine Justice: 404-727-0643, ejustic@emory.edu
Deb Hammacher: 404-727-0644, dhammac@emory.edu

• Democrats have a strong chance to regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2002 midterm election, predicts national political election expert Alan Abramowitz, who developed a statistical forecasting model that shows the party winning 14 more seats. "The gain is a small shift, but a significant one," he says, with many implications for domestic policy. For more on the study go to www.apsanet.net/~elections/abramowitz.html.

Although President Bush is campaigning extensively for his party's candidates, a Republican Congress would not necessarily be the best outcome for Bush, says Abramowitz, since "there's no escaping responsibility for what happens, especially if the economy doesn't pull out of its slump, which could cause harm to the party in 2004." Abramowitz can be reached at 404-727-0108 (w), 404-633-7209 (h) or polsaa@emory.edu.

• Georgia voters have the strong potential to send five African-American candidates to Congress for the first time in history for any state. Georgia's congressional races represent a shift in white voters, who historically have shown a reluctance to vote for black candidates, but this is changing, according to political scientist Rob Brown. An expert in the area of African-American and racial public opinion, Brown can be reached at 404-727-6563 (w), 404-286-8943 (h) or rabrown@emory.edu.

• The Republican and Democratic parties are essentially tied with voters across the nation, says political scientist and congressional expert Randall Strahan. "Both parties are competing for the voters in the middle, working a balancing act between what their core voters want and the undecided voters who aren't taken to strong positions," he says. Such an evenly divided Congress won't result in total gridlock, but each party will have difficulty in passing any major legislation, regardless of the outcome of the election, says Strahan, who can be reached at 404-727-7913 (w) or polsrs@emory.edu.

• Renowned national political expert Merle Black has commented in recent weeks on issues ranging from presidential approval ratings to contentious congressional races, from Republican and Democratic strategies to voting behavior and patterns. Black, co-author of "The Rise of Southern Republicans," can be reached at 404-727-6570 (w), 404-728-8996 (h) or pblac01@emory.edu.

• Environmental economist Ujjayant Chakravorty says Americans are paying a premium at the pump right now because of uncertainty over a possible war with Iraq, but he doubts that high prices will have an impact on this fall's elections. After all, he says, supporters of war can argue that success in ousting Saddam Hussein could result in Iraq's eventually pumping more oil in the world market and lower oil prices down the road. Chakravorty can be reached at 404-727-1381 (w), 678-482-0963 (h), or 404-819-5692 (cell), or unc@emory.edu

• Law and economics expert Paul Rubin says congressional Democrats may have hurt themselves at the polls this fall by spending so much time the joint resolution on Iraq rather than the nation's sagging economy. "They're doing what they can to make up for lost time," says Rubin, but probably weren't helped by emphasizing an issue the Bush administration considers its strong suit. Rubin, the author of a new book, "Darwinian Politics" can be reached at 404-727-6365 (w), 404-631-7773 (h), or prubin@emory.edu.

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