Release date: Oct. 28, 2004
Contact: Deb Hammacher, Associate Director, University Media Relations,
at 404-727-0644 or deb.hammacher@emory.edu

Election Preview Offered at Forum

Three of the nation's most distinguished political scientists offered their insight into the 2004 presidential election, national politics and current voter trends during a forum on "Presidential Elections in an Age of Uncertainty" hosted by Emory University Oct. 26 at the Atlanta History Center.

Emory's Alan Abramowitz, Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science, and Merle Black, Asa G. Candler Professor of Politics and Government, were joined by Harvard University's Thomas Patterson, Bradlee Professor of Government and the Press. CNN's Carol Costello moderated the event.

Black said that instead of being split 50/50, the U.S. electorate is divided 45/45 between Democrats and Republicans, essentially creating two very competitive, homogonous minority parties with sharp ideological differences. The division varies widely by region, he said. Democrats prevail in the Northeast and the Pacific coast, while the Republicans dominate in the South and the Rocky Mountain/Plains states. As a result, the battleground is in the Midwest, which Bush won by only 9,000 votes in 2000, he said.

Abramowitz said this year's presidential election is "not a national election but a series of 50 state elections because of the Electoral College." He said the number of battleground states has decreased markedly over time. In the 1960s and 70s, virtually every big state was up for grabs and well over half the population lived in a battleground state, he said. Now New York, California, Texas and Illinois are no longer in the mix.

Black drew audience murmurs when he pointed out that the states considered to be the Democratic base have 260 electoral votes, while Republican state strongholds total only 135.

"Kerry must win Pennsylvania to have a chance to win it all. If Kerry can carry Florida, it will be very difficult for Bush to win, but this may end up being the first election where a Democrat won without winning a single Southern state," Abramowitz said. A lot of new voters coming into the polls could produce a major "coattail" effect for state party tickets, since new voters tend to stick with whichever party they voted for in the presidential race, he added.

The two key elements for this election will depend on "which way the swing voters swing," which historically has favored the challenger, and turnout, which is the unknown, he said.

All three political scientists said there was little chance of major change in the Electoral College, and until the 2000 election, the Electoral College closely reflected the outcome of the popular vote. Changes in how votes in the Electoral College are assigned could occur at the state level, they said, but admitted it would be difficult, since, as Abramowitz pointed out, the winner-take-all model makes states' electoral votes more important.

The war in Iraq is the issue that has "stirred the drink--not 9/11 but the war," said Patterson. "It has changed the war on terrorism from non-partisan to a highly partisan issue."

Patterson says this year's election has "caught the interest and imagination" of voters, and will finally reverse a longstanding trend of declining voter participation. "We're seeing a very different electorate from 2000. People see it as the most important election since 1968," he said. "It will make a difference who gets elected."

"If we're going to sustain the interest and participation, we'll need help from the news media and political leadership," he said. Patterson took the media to task for covering "dead ends and controversies that take attention away from what's important," and for reaching "close to a new low in public discourse."

Patterson said that because "competition is the lifeblood of democracy," he is disturbed by what's going on in congressional districts: of 135 districts, only about two dozen are competitive. He placed the blame on redistricting, saying "state legislatures are making these decisions, not the voters." Abramowitz puts the blame on the difficulty of a challenger overcoming incumbency, possibly an issue intertwined with redistricting.

All three were reluctant to pick a winner for next Tuesday, although Patterson said if polls show Kerry ahead over the weekend, "Republicans can pack their bags."

The event was presented by Emory's Center for the Study of Public Scholarship and Institute for Comparative and International Studies, as part of the Atlanta History Center's "Hear and Now: Hot Talk About Hot Topics" series.

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