Feb. 19, 2004

Contact:
Elaine Justice, 404-727-0643, ejustic@emory.edu
Deb Hammacher, 404-727-0644, dhammac@emory.edu

Abramowitz on Forecasting Election Outcomes

The economy, presidential approval rating and the number of terms a party has been in power are the three key factors Abramowitz uses to forecast presidential outcomes. "The fact that President Bush is a first-term incumbent--that Republicans just took control four years ago--is an advantage. The other factors have to be quite negative to overcome that. If Democrats don't prevail in November, they will have a much better chance in 2008 when the 'time for change' factor is in play."

As for how the Democratic primary is shaping up, Abramowitz says Edwards and Clark have to win Tennessee or Virginia. "Edwards really needs to win both and then win a state outside the South if he wants to stay in the race. Wisconsin could turn out to be critical. I think Dean's strategy of bypassing everything and focusing on Wisconsin is a mistake. He looks less and less like a serious candidate for the nomination."

The current Democratic primary system has its pros and cons, according to Abramowitz. The front-loading of primaries makes those states with dates in May and June basically irrelevant. If there were a national system where all primaries were grouped in one or two weeks, "it would give candidates with name recognition and money a huge advantage. The current system allows for very close scrutiny of the candidates in the early stages. In this case the scrutiny caused Dean's campaign to implode. But then the momentum effect gets magnified very quickly and a lot of money has to be raised."

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