Release date: Jan. 30, 2008
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Florida Results Add Clues to Complex Race for Both Parties

John McCain established himself as the Republican frontrunner with his victory Tuesday night, while Hillary Clinton’s victory in the Democratic primary proves she is still very viable, says Emory political scientist Andra Gillespie.

McCain will benefit from state party rules that award the winner of the Florida primary all of last night’s available delegates. "Hopefully, he will also gain fundraising momentum from both this and the South Carolina victories, which will help him as he campaigns for Super Tuesday," Gillespie says.

"Perhaps even more important, the results of the Florida primary confirmed the imprudence of skipping the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary," she says. "Rudolph Giuliani took a huge risk by waiting until today to compete. In doing so, he essentially took the wind out of his own sails and undermined his credibility as a presidential candidate."

Despite the fact that Florida was stripped of its Democratic delegates, Hillary Clinton’s victory last night suggests that she is still a viable candidate going into Super Tuesday. "Despite Caroline and Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama on Monday, Clinton still commands votes," Gillespie says. "Moreover, the fact that she performed strongly in a closed Democratic primary raises the question of whether Obama can win closed primaries, where he cannot rely on Independent and Republican crossover votes. Either way, it is very clear that this race is far from over."

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