Release date: Sept. 16, 2005
Contact: Elaine Justice at 404-727-0643 or elaine.justice@emory.edu

Germany Ready for Change, Says Emory's Tuschhoff

Angela Merkel

Emory political scientist Christian Tuschhoff says that regardless of what coalition government emerges in Germany after the Sept. 18 election, Angela Merkel will become the next chancellor. When she does, she will face two challenges: to lead the economy back to stable, long-term growth and to make changes in Germany's welfare state.

"While she deserves every chance any fresh leader should be awarded," says Tuschhoff, "I doubt whether she is able to overcome the fundamental curse of the German consensus democracy tha caused the stalling of necessary reforms in the first place."

A number of factors will determine Merkel's chances for success, according to Tuschhoff. "First how strong of a mandate will she receive from the voters? . . . A lack of public approval will restrict her ability to mobilize the public against opposition and within her own party."

"Second, how strong is Merkel as a leader of the Christian Democratic Parties?" If Merkel cannot mobilize loyalty and support from local party leaders, she will not have the success of strong leaders such as former chancellor Helmut Kohl.

Third, Merkel faces skepticism from independent regional party leaders, whose loyalty to their individual states takes precedence over national party loyalty.

"As a result, the public's low expectations for reforms are the most realistic scenario for Germany under a Merkel government," he says.

For more on Tuschoff's analysis of Merkel's political liabilities, click here. For more on recent German public opinion polls, click here.

Emory University is known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities. For nearly two decades Emory has been named one of the country's top 25 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system.

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