Release date: Feb. 14, 2008
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Election Outlook Calls for Candidates to Heal Rifts, Change Course

Emory University political scientist Andra Gillespie offers the following analysis of voting trends and the candidates' campaign strategy as both Republicans and Democrats seek to solidify their presidential candidate choices in advance of next week's primaries.

McCain Heads to Nomination, But Huckabee Holds Out

The Potomac Primaries began to provide closure for the Republican nomination. At this point, it is numerically impossible for Mike Huckabee to secure the nomination. Despite this, he has vowed to stay in the race until John McCain has won the requisite 1191 delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination. Huckabee's decision to stay in the races raises many questions about his motives and about the role that evangelical voters will play in Republican politics this cycle.

McCain's apparent primary win has not settled the ideological rifts in the Republican Party between social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and moderates. McCain is clearly the favorite of the moderate wing of the party. Previously, McCain split the votes of social conservatives with Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Huckabee was clearly the favorite of the Southern evangelical subset of the social conservative wing of the party. Neither of the remaining candidates would be the first choice of the fiscal conservatives, who were more comfortable with Romney.

Republicans Must Heal Rifts to Mobilize Voters in November

The biggest question going forward is how to unify these disparate camps before November. If major wings of the Republican Party are not mollified by the convention, then they cannot be counted upon to mobilize their voters for the general election. Being able to mobilize all sectors of the Republican base is critically important in an election year where Republicans are at a disadvantage because of the war, the economy and President Bush's low approval ratings.

The selection of a vice-presidential running mate is generally inconsequential to the outcome of an election. Voters vote for the top of the ticket. However, the selection of a running mate can be important in the context of intra-partisan bickering. Picking a running mate from a dissatisfied wing of the party or adopting some of that faction's platform positions can help quell dissent (if only temporarily) and convince some party elites to at least make an effort to help elect the party's nominee.

What factors is McCain weighing as he selects a running mate? He is no doubt reaching out to the Republican camps that are less than enthused with his candidacy.

It is possible that one of these camps may only be satisfied with the vice-presidential nominee. If this becomes the case, then McCain's nominee becomes somewhat analogous to Lyndon Johnson's vice-presidential nomination in 1960. Johnson was selected to appease Southern Democrats who were concerned that Kennedy might be too liberal on civil rights.

Huckabee makes sense as a vice-presidential nominee if Southern, Christian conservatives are the least likely to support McCain unless Huckabee is a part of the ticket. However, if this subset of the Republican base appears likely to hold its nose and vote for McCain, then McCain should use his vice-presidential selection (among other carrots) to mollify a more dissatisfied wing of the party.

Obama's Winning Streak Puts Clinton Campaign at Crossroads

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama's winning streak emphasizes the importance of upcoming primaries on March 4. If Obama continues to win handily over Hillary Clinton through the beginning of March, not only will he be the clear frontrunner, but there will likely be public calls from within the party for Clinton to step aside.

Clinton has the difficult task of positively distinguishing herself from Obama in the coming weeks. It is going to be very difficult for her to do this apart from drawing sharp contrasts between her and Obama. Usually, this means negative campaigning. Her challenge is to draw those contrasts without appearing desperate or vindictive. She is also going to have to work extra hard to draw out her base of voters. She still won among white Democrats and white women in Virginia and Maryland (though Obama narrowed that gap). She has to tailor her message to that constituency and reach out to her traditional bastions of strength, such as downscale, older and Latino voters, who largely went with Obama in the Potomac primaries (except Maryland Latinos).

Clinton also has to do a better job energizing her voters. Over Super Tuesday, voters who made their choice the day of the election broke slightly for Clinton. While last-minute deciders broke for Obama in Louisiana on Saturday, Clinton had a slight advantage among last-minute Potomac Primary voters. This suggests that Clinton's support is soft. Obama's voters are more enthusiastic and reach their decision faster. In the next few weeks, Clinton has to strongly convince her base of the viability of her candidacy. Or, she has to develop a top- notch get-out-the-vote effort to identify and mobilize enough of those undecided voters and convince them to vote for her.

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