Release date: Jan. 28, 2008

Obama's S.C. Victory Impressive, but not Decisive, Says Emory's Gillespie

Jan. 28, 2008

Contact: Beverly Cox Clark, 404-712-8780, 404-275-4771 (cell), beverly.clark@emory.edu
Contact: Elaine Justice, 404-727-0643, 404-276-8263 (cell), elaine.justice@emory.edu

Barack Obama's two-to-one victory over Hillary Clinton was absolutely impressive, but it is by no means decisive in the Democratic nominating process, says Emory University political scientist Andra Gillespie. The South Carolina primary results suggest that Obama has consolidated his support among African Americans, many of who felt patronized by Bill Clinton in the last week. The larger question, which we won't know the answer to until Super Tuesday, is how this consolidation will affect his larger coalition.

Obama's performance among white voters is cause for concern, says Gillespie. While Obama won a quarter of the white vote, Hillary Clinton won a plurality among white women and John Edwards won a plurality among white men. "Despite his third place finish, these findings suggest that Edwards can play the kingmaker role. This is why he is staying in the race through Super Tuesday," Gillespie says.

"As we look ahead to Super Tuesday, we must ask the following questions. How will Obama fare in closed primaries, where he cannot rely on augmenting his margins with crossover votes? How much support will he get from white voters in Super Tuesday states? Will Latino voters warm to him?" she says. "South Carolina was a spectacular victory, but given the structural and demographic uniqueness of the state, it is not guaranteed (though not impossible) that this result will be replicated in future primaries."

Andra Gillespie is an assistant professor of political science at Emory whose research looks at political mobilization and race, as well as competition between minority groups. Gillespie's experience as a pollster and consultant has helped shape her research into what works – and what doesn't– in minority politics today as new leadership emerges separate from the civil rights generation. She received her Ph.D. from Yale University in 2005. Reach Gillespie at 404-727-9348, 203-507-7470 or andra.gillespie@emory.edu

Emory University (www.emory.edu) is one of the nation’s leading private research universities and a member of the Association of American Universities. Known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities, Emory is ranked as one of the country's top 20 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system.

Subscribe to News@Emory RSS feeds for automatic updates of the latest news at Emory.

Back