Release date: updated Jan. 9, 2008

New Hampshire Defies Polls

Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780, 404-275-4771 (cell), beverly.clark@emory.edu

Contact: Elaine Justice at 404-727-0643, 404-276-8263 (treo), elaine.justice@emory.edu

A record turnout of voters in the New Hampshire primary Jan. 8 delivered a surprise comeback for Hillary Clinton and boosted John McCain's bid. The following Emory experts weigh in on what remain lively and fluid races for the Presidential nominations of both parties.

Merle Black: A Sobering Lesson for Obama

"Hillary really improved among women voters. She went from 30 percent of the women's vote in Iowa to 46 percent in New Hampshire. Among men, Barack Obama beat her by 11 points. What Hillary has to do is expand her base of support to men, and also do well among minorities, as the contest moves into more diverse electorates."

"John McCain got 40 percent of independent votes, compared to Mitt Romney's 27 percent. Among Republicans, Romney actually ran one point higher than McCain: 35 to 34. It means McCain still has a huge problem among Republican voters. Right now, he's a weak frontrunner."

Merle Black, Emory's Asa G. Candler Professor of Politics and Government, is co-author of "Divided America: The Ferocious Power Struggle in American Politics," with his twin brother Earl, of Rice University. The groundbreaking work, published in March, details – for the first time – the country's distinct regional differences to assess the driving forces of partisanship in national politics. One the nation's most incisive commentators, Black is the foremost authority on politics in the South and has extensive media experience. Reach Black at 404-727-6570 or merle.black@emory.edu

Alan Abramowitz: South Carolina Now the Focus

"The South Carolina primary is going to be a crucial test for both parties. For the Democrats, it's the first test of a large black vote. For the Republicans, it will be a real test to see whether John McCain can build on New Hampshire and win in a state with a more conservative Republican electorate. The Republican race could go on beyond Super Tuesday. For the first time in decades, we could see a Republican convention where the outcome is not preordained."

Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory, and a renowned expert on national politics and elections. His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. Abramowitz has authored or coauthored four books, including "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States." Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 or alan.abramowitz@emory.edu

Andra Gillespie: One Must Play to the Base

"The New Hampshire primary confirmed that, for both parties, the race for the Presidential nomination is still up in the air. The high level of competition bodes well for increased voter turnout as the primaries continue. However, last night's contest taught the leading Democratic candidates a valuable lesson: one must play to the base. If a candidate fails to capture the imagination of the base, he or she will lose a partisan caucus or primary."

Andra Gillespie is an assistant professor of political science at Emory whose research looks at political mobilization and race, as well as competition between minority groups. Gillespie's experience as a pollster and consultant has helped shape her research into what works – and what doesn't– in minority politics today as new leadership emerges separate from the civil rights generation. She received her Ph.D. from Yale University in 2005. Reach Gillespie at 404-727-9348, 203-507-7470 (cell) or andra.gillespie@emory.edu

Emory University (www.emory.edu) is one of the nation’s leading private research universities and a member of the Association of American Universities. Known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities, Emory is ranked as one of the country's top 20 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system.

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