Release date: Jan. 16, 2008

Michigan Primary Results Hint at Trouble for Party Leaders

Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780, 404-275-4771 (cell), beverly.clark@emory.edu

Contact: Elaine Justice at 404-727-0643, 404-276-8263 (treo), elaine.justice@emory.edu

The results of last night's Michigan presidential primary contained some important clues about the future of the Republican and Democratic nomination contests, says Alan Abramowitz, Emory University political scientist and polling expert.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's decisive win over John McCain has breathed new life into Romney's campaign. At the same time, John McCain's disappointing showing has raised serious doubts about whether he will be able to maintain his newfound frontrunner status in the Republican race.

"According to exit poll results, McCain lost badly to Romney among two voter blocs that will be crucial in the upcoming primary states: Republicans and conservatives," says Abramowitz. "As in New Hampshire, McCain did best among political independents and moderates, but there just weren't enough of them to offset Mitt Romney's strength about the GOP base.

"Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee finished behind Romney among evangelical and born again Christians. He will have to do much better among this group if he is to have any chance of winning next Saturday in South Carolina."

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton as expected won a clear majority of the vote in her party's uncontested primary. Clinton's main opposition in Michigan was "uncommitted" since both Barack Obama and John Edwards had their names removed from the state's primary ballot after the Democratic National Committee decided to strip Michigan of its national convention delegates to punish the state party for scheduling its primary earlier than allowed under party rules.

"Despite her easy victory over the uncommitted slate, however, the Michigan results did hold one warning sign for the Clinton campaign," says Abramowitz. "According to the exit poll, African Americans made up 23 percent of Democratic primary voters in Michigan and 70 percent of them voted for the uncommitted slate over Hillary Clinton. This could indicate trouble ahead for the Clinton campaign in South Carolina where African Americans are expected to make up a majority of Democratic primary voters."

Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory, and a renowned expert on national politics and elections. His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. Abramowitz has authored or coauthored four books, including "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting Behavior in the United States." Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 or alan.abramowitz@emory.edu

Emory University (www.emory.edu) is one of the nation’s leading private research universities and a member of the Association of American Universities. Known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities, Emory is ranked as one of the country's top 20 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system.

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