Release date: July 25, 2008
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Political Analysis: All Signs Point to a Decisive Democratic Victory

The polls may show a tight horse race, but voters will likely see a blowout in November for Sen. Barack Obama and the Democrats, says Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz in a new co-authored paper on "The Myth of a Toss-Up Election."

Abramowitz co-wrote the paper with Brookings Institute fellow Thomas Mann and University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, director UVA's Center for Politics. The paper was published July 24 on the center's "Crystal Ball '08" Web site.

"While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed -- historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months -- point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic Party victory in November," the trio noted.

"Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up," they wrote.

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