Release date: Feb. 24, 2004
Contact: Elaine Justice, Associate Director, University Media Relations,
at 404-727-0643 or ejustic@emory.edu

Nader Back in Race, but No Real Threat This Year

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz says Ralph Nader most likely did help Bush win the 2000 election, but his run for office this year will have much less of an effect on the outcome.

"You can blame Gore's defeat on a lot of different things, but Nader certainly did not help," Abramowitz says.

Exit poll data from 2000 show that among Nader supporters, about half said they would have voted for Gore in a straight Gore-Bush ticket, while about 20 to 25 percent would have voted for Bush, and 25 percent would not have voted for either one.

"If you project that out, with several hundred thousand more votes going to Gore, it is more than likely that would have added enough votes to put Gore over the top in very close states such as New Hampshire and Florida," Abramowitz says.

But this year, Nader will have trouble getting on the ballot in many states running as an independent. Another major difference is that former supporters are now highly critical of his decision to run, he says.

Abramowitz is a nationally known expert on national politics and elections and the author of the newly published "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States." His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. He can discuss the Democratic primaries, polling results and the general outlook for the 2004 election season. Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 (w), 404-633-7209 (h) or polsaa@emory.edu.

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