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Release date: Sept. 24, 2004 Bush, Kerry Have Much to Gain, Lose in Debates
Contact: President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry will need to not only strategically attack each other's policies in the upcoming debates, but also avoid a common pitfall of reinforcing negative perceptions voters may have of them, says William Newnam, associate director of forensics and an expert on debate strategy at Emory University. "These debates are going to be uniquely important because the public is generally uneasy right now, but not very comfortable with Kerry as an alternative to Bush," says Newnam. "The small numbers of soft supporters for each side and the undecided voters can be moved by the debates if Kerry can overcome the accusations of being a man of too many positions. "If Bush can conflate the war on Iraq with the war on terror, and convince voters that domestic policy is headed in the right direction, however, he might be able hold back the tide," says Newnam, who served on a presidential debate evaluation panel in 2000 for United Press International. Prior to the debates, both sides work hard to lower expectations of their candidate while raising expectations for the opposition, Newnam says, adding that the Republican Party historically has been very good at lowering expectations of its candidates while raising expectations of the Democratic candidates. As a result, when performances are judged to be fairly equal, Republicans often declare their candidate the victor. "Bush's strength is his folksy style. Among his supporters he is still perceived as a straight shooter. His weakness is that he has not appeared very often before hostile questioners," Newnam says. He notes that Bush has had few news conferences and one-on-one interviews since becoming President, and many of those revealed a testy person prone to making mistaken statements if he perceives a hostile question. "On the other hand, he has had a lot of practice on the stump making the case for his reelection, so his lines are extremely well-rehearsed," Newnam says. Kerry, however, "has the problem of not being a warm person, especially through the lens of a camera. He also tends to offer 25 words when 10 would do. This does not make for a good debate style and might contribute in the end to the expectation that he overanalyzes issues and, as a result, sounds like he has multiple positions and lacks conviction. Kerry does seem intelligent and well-informed, so he may be better prepared to answer the unexpected question," he says. To be successful in the debates, Newnam says that Kerry needs to make it clear that Bush has no plan for solving national security issues, that his economic policies are not beneficial for the average voter and that Kerry is a man with enough conviction to make positive changes. Since a sufficient segment of the electorate remains uncomfortable with the direction of Bush's leadership, Kerry needs to make these voters confident that he has something positive to offer, Newnam says. But, the domestic issues debate is a potential danger zone for Kerry because he has complicated positions on issues like gay marriage, abortion and other hot-button social issues. "He could end up reinforcing the charges of inconsistency," Newnam says. Reach Newnam at 404-727-6189 or wnewman@emory.edu. For more political news, visit the election news page. |
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