Release date: Sept. 2, 2005
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Emory Study Finds "Bush Effect" Increases Political Polarization

An analysis of National Election Studies data has found President George W. Bush to be the most polarizing candidate in modern American history. His candidacy drove record numbers of voters to the polls in 2004, and today, the public remains deeply divided in their opinions of Bush, says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz.

"Even as his approval ratings have gone down, there remains a tremendous partisan divide around President Bush. You can see it in how people have responded to our national calamity along the Gulf Coast and the criticism Bush has received in how he is responding to crisis. Nearly every major issue in this country is a partisan issue and it's due to how people view the president," says Abramowitz, who will present his analysis of the National Election Studies (NES) during the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association this weekend.

Americans were more engaged in the 2004 presidential election than they had been in any presidential contest in the past 50 years with a dramatic increase in voter turnout and in a variety of campaign activities beyond voting, Abramowitz notes in his paper, "The Bush Effect: Polarization, Turnout, and Activism in the 2004 Presidential Election," cowritten with University of California-Davis political scientist Walter Stone.

More than 122 million Americans voted in 2004, an increase of 17 million over the 2000 presidential election. Turnout jumped from 54 percent of eligible voters in 2000 to 61 percent in 2004 -- close to the levels seen during the 1950s and 1960s before the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, he says.

It was not only voting that was way up in 2004. According to data from the American National Election Studies, far more Americans engaged in campaign activities beyond voting. Twenty-one percent of Americans displayed a button, bumper sticker, or yard sign during the campaign, matching the all time high set in 1960. In 2000, despite the closeness of the presidential race, only 10 percent of Americans displayed a button, bumper sticker or yard sign.

Even more impressively, 48 percent of Americans reported that they talked to someone during the 2004 campaign to try to influence their vote, says Abramowitz. This was by far the highest proportion in the history of the NES and a dramatic increase from the 32 percent who reported engaging in efforts at personal persuasion during the 2000 campaign.

The high level of public engagement in the 2004 election represents a continuation of a trend that began during the 1980s and 1990s, he says. As the Democratic and Republican parties have become more polarized and party identification has become more consistent with ideological identification and issue positions, voters have come to perceive a greater stake in the outcomes of elections, Abramowitz says.

Emory University is known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities. For nearly two decades Emory has been named one of the country's top 25 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system.

Subscribe to News@Emory RSS feeds for automatic updates of the latest news at Emory.

Back