Release date: Oct. 28, 2004
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark, Assistant Director, University Media Relations,
at 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Poll Analysis Finds Presidential Race Still Tight

An analysis of the most recent national polls by Emory University political scientist and national elections expert Alan Abramowitz finds the Presidential race too close to call heading into the final weekend of the campaign.

"George Bush appears to hold a very slight lead nationally, but his support remains below the 50 percent level that is generally considered necessary for an incumbent, since undecided voters generally break toward the challenger by a wide margin," Abramowitz says.

For this analysis, Abramowitz included polls done by the 10 leading polling organizations, and excluded all partisan polls, Internet polls and automatic dial-up polls. Included in the analysis were: Gallup, CBS/New York Times, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post, Zogby, Time, Newsweek, Pew, AP/Ipsos, and Los Angeles Times. All of these polls except Zogby report results for registered as well as likely voters.

Among likely voters, Bush was leading in five polls, Kerry in two, and three were tied. The average level of support for the candidates was Bush 48.2 percent, Kerry 47 percent and Nader 1.3 percent. Among registered voters, Bush was leading in three polls, Kerry in two, and four were tied. The average level of support for the candidates was Bush 47 percent, Kerry 46 percent and Nader 1.9 percent.

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