Release date: Jan. 23, 2004
Contact: Elaine Justice, Associate Director, University Media Relations,
at 404-727-0643 or ejustic@emory.edu

Emory Experts Comment on Upcoming New Hampshire Primary

Alan Abramowitz, Emory political science professor, on what's next for Democratic candidates:

"Compared to polls taken a week ago, we see a dramatic shift. What this shows is that in a crowded field, the candidates are not well known and a lot of voters were still learning about the candidates and making up their minds late in the process," says Abramowitz. For example, "the polls taken shortly before the Iowa caucus were pretty accurate in showing Kerry in the lead and Edwards moving up, although Dean and Gephart did worse than predicted."

Looking ahead to Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, Abramowitz says voters will be forming their opinions about the candidates until the last minute. Expect to see Kerry to get a big bump in the polls and probably move ahead of Dean due to his Iowa win, although there are many unknowns in how the Iowa results will affect Edwards and Clark. Abramowitz predicts that Lieberman will likely drop out after New Hampshire, since he appears to be gaining little traction in the polls there and will not benefit from the Iowa results. Contact Abramowitz at 727-404-727-0108 or polsaa@emory.edu.

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Drew Westen, professor of psychiatry and behavioral science, on the candidates' behavior:

Westen says Howard Dean "blew it" with his concession speech in Iowa. "He gave off the wrong non-verbal cues all the way around. Instead of coming across as strong and hopeful, and inspiring the troops to soldier on, he comes off as angry and inappropriate and has likely alienated a lot of voters. Data shows that hopeful, positive messages, such as the ones Edwards has deliberately crafted, tend to appeal to voters more. That was probably his intent, but with the combination of his hoarse voice and his delivery, he sounded maniacal in a way that will damage him in the eyes of voters."

Westen is director of clinical psychology and professor of psychiatry and behavioral science at Emory, His major areas of research are personality disorders, eating disorders, emotion regulation, unconscious processes, psychotherapy effectiveness and adolescent psychopathology, as well as the psychological analysis of political issues.

Westen has written more than 100 scientific papers and two books, including an introductory psychology textbook now in its third edition. For several years he was a commentator on psychology issues for "All Things Considered" on National Public Radio. In addition to his doctorate in clinical psychology from the University of Michigan, he also holds a graduate degree in social and political thought from the University of Sussex in England.

Recent research by Westen has delved into the intersection of psychology and politics. Experiments he conducted have shown that people overwhelmingly respond to candidates, advertisements, rhetoric and other efforts to influence people's attitudes at a more subconscious emotional "gut" level than by conscious examination of fact and figures. Contact Westen at 404-727-7407 or dwesten@emory.edu.

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