Release date: Nov. 9, 2004

Gay Marriage Referenda Did Not Affect Voter Turnout

An analysis by Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz of voter turnout in each state during the presidential election indicates that the presence of gay marriage referenda on the ballot had no impact on turnout levels.

"Turnout increased substantially in swing states and in states that President Bush was favored to win, regardless of whether those states had gay marriage referenda on the ballot. The increase in turnout was much smaller in states that John Kerry was favored to win," says Abramowitz.

There was a very strong correlation between President Bush's share of the vote in 2000 and his share of the vote in 2004 across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The president consistently ran a few percentage points ahead of his showing in 2000, but he did not improve on his 2000 performance any more in states with gay marriage referenda than in other states.

In 11 states with gay marriage referenda on the ballot, Bush increased his share of the vote from an average of 55.4 percent in 2000 to an average of 58.0 percent in 2004--an improvement of 2.6 percentage points. However, in the rest of the country the president increased his share of the vote from an average of 48.1 percent in 2000 to an average of 51.0 percent in 2004--an improvement of 2.9 percentage points.

Emory University is known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities. For nearly two decades Emory has been named one of the country's top 25 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system.

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