Release date: Feb. 6, 2008
Contact: Beverly Cox Clark at 404-712-8780 or beverly.clark@emory.edu

Super Tuesday Results Leave More Questions Than Answers

Super Tuesday's results demonstrate how spectacularly competitive this nomination contest has been, and a more detailed analysis of the exit polls reveals some interesting trends and non-trends, says Emory University political scientist Andra Gillespie.

On the Democratic side, pundits have touted Obama's strong showing in the South. In particular, they note that Obama won 40 percent of the white vote in Georgia, besting his 25 percent showing among whites in South Carolina. "However, Obama got proportionately fewer white votes in Arizona, where he only got 38 percent of the white vote," Gillespie says. "It's hard to tell whether Georgia's showing was spectacular or Arizona's showing was troubling. What's more, the Arizona and California exit polls reveal that more voters would be dissatisfied if he won the nomination than if Hillary Clinton won the nomination."

It also is not clear that either Clinton or Obama won a decisive portion of the vote that would have gone to John Edwards. "Overall, they are splitting the vote of people who thought Edwards would be the best commander-in-chief (which was highly correlated with vote preference when Edwards was still in the race) and people who thought that Edwards can best unite the country," she says.

"There will be those who look at Obama's strong showing in heartland and western states and extrapolate that Obama may be the most electable candidate. There are a few considerations, though. Obama won handily in overwhelmingly red states. While a win in a potentially purple state such as Missouri lends credibility to his electability claims, winning Idaho does not," Gillespie says.

One thing is clear from yesterday's showing, she adds. "Obama appears to have carved an anti-war niche for himself. It would seem that Mrs. Clinton is suffering not only from having initially voted to authorize the war in Iraq, but also from refusing to admit that she made a mistake. This issue will continue to dog her until she finds a way to admit her error gracefully."

On the Republican side, yesterday's showing was disappointing for Mitt Romney, and Southern conservatives demonstrated their reluctance to vote for him. "Despite prodding from talk radio hosts, Southern evangelicals supported one of their own," Gillespie says. "Mike Huckabee's surprising showing makes him a serious contender for a vice presidential nod and demonstrates that the grassroots in the Bible Belt may not have been as fractured as the leadership was."

Emory University (www.emory.edu) is one of the nation’s leading private research universities and a member of the Association of American Universities. Known for its demanding academics, outstanding undergraduate college of arts and sciences, highly ranked professional schools and state-of-the-art research facilities, Emory is ranked as one of the country's top 20 national universities by U.S. News & World Report. In addition to its nine schools, the university encompasses The Carter Center, Yerkes National Primate Research Center and Emory Healthcare, the state's largest and most comprehensive health care system.

Subscribe to News@Emory RSS feeds for automatic updates of the latest news at Emory.

Back