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Feb. 19, 2004 Contact:
Super Tuesday Outcome Depends on Money, Dean SupportersJohn Edwards' strong showing in Wisconsin assures that the race for the Democratic nomination continues at least until "Super Tuesday" March 2, with the possibility open that Edwards might catch John Kerry in his bid for the presidential nomination. To compete, Edwards has to attract more support from the Democratic party faithful, and will need to sharpen his criticism of Kerry and accentuate the differences between them if he is going to stay competitive, says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. Exit polls from the Wisconsin primary show that Edwards has made a strong showing among independents, Republicans and voters who pick the economy and jobs as their biggest issue, while John Kerry led among African Americans, identified Democrats and those without a college education and with lower incomes, an ongong trend. "One thing I've found to be ironic in the exit poll data is that Edwards' populist message doesn't translate into the kind of support he's been getting. He gets more votes among the more well-to-do, more educated suburban voters, and unless he can expand his appeal, Kerry still has the advantage," Abramowitz says. Two aspects of the race which remain uncertain during the next two weeks center on money and Howard Dean, according to Abramowitz. "Money is a big question. The Super Tuesday primaries range from Georgia to California, which makes it very expensive if you're going to advertise in all of them. Kerry has a little bit of an advantage in this regard. There are also questions of what will happen to Dean's support base. Although he never won a primary, he still received double-digit support, so it will be interesting to see where that support swings without Dean." Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 or polsaa@emory.edu. Our full list of experts is online at www.emory.edu/central/NEWS/Releases/expertstalk.html. |
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