Emory University News Release

Release date: Dec. 3, 2004
Contact: Deb Hammacher, Associate Director, University Media Relations,
at 404-727-0644 or deb.hammacher@emory.edu

Since 1988, Presidential Election Forecast Model Picks Popular Vote Winner

Despite mediocre approval ratings and below average economic growth, President George W. Bush won a second term in the White House as correctly predicted in July by the "time-for-change" forecasting model developed by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. The model has correctly predicted the popular vote winner in every presidential election since 1988.

"George Bush did not win because he ran a brilliant campaign, because John Kerry ran a poor campaign, or because millions of evangelicals turned out to express their opposition to abortion, gay marriage and Janet Jackson’s wardrobe malfunction," Abramowitz says. "He won because he was an incumbent whose party had controlled the White House for only one term."

The economy, presidential approval ratings and the number of terms a party has been in power are the three key factors Abramowitz uses to forecast presidential outcomes.

Abramowitz's forecast – made in July before the Republican National Convention and more than three months before Election Day – predicted Bush would win with 53.7 percent of the major party vote. He was reelected with 51.4 percent of the major party vote, which slightly exceeded the average error of 1.9 percent for 14 national polls that were released in the last four days before the election.

An article on the forecasting model will be published in the January 2005 issue of "PS: Political Science and Politics." For the full text, click here.

Abramowitz is a widely known expert on national politics and elections and the author of "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States." His expertise includes election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. Reach Abramowitz at 404-727-0108 or alan.abramowitz@emory.edu.