Emory University News Release

Release date: Sept. 8, 2004
Contact: Deb Hammacher, Associate Director, University Media Relations,
at 404-727-0644 or deb.hammacher@emory.edu

Emory Presidential Election Preview Panel on Capitol Hill Sept. 30

WHO: Emory political scientists Alan Abramowitz and Merle Black; moderator Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report and National Journal

WHAT: Presidential Election Preview and Q&A

WHEN: 6-8 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 30, 2004

WHERE: 325 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington. Union Station Metro and parking

Open to members of the news media, Emory alumni, parents, friends and their guests.

CONTACT: Media: 404-727-0644 or deb.hammacher@emory.edu. Alumni, parents and friends: go to http://www.alumniconnections.com/olc/pub/EMR/events/event_order.cgi?tmpl=events&event=1717896.0

Two of the country's top politics experts will be on Capitol Hill for Q&A on the rapidly approaching presidential election. Emory University political science professors Alan Abramowitz and Merle Black, both nationally known experts on politics and elections, will give a presidential election preview and take questions. The guest moderator will be Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report and The National Journal.

• Alan I. Abramowitz is Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory. He is an expert on national politics and elections. His areas of expertise include election forecasting models, party realignment in the United States, congressional elections and the effects of political campaigns on the electorate. He can discuss the respective campaigns and his forecasting model, which predicts a slim majority for President Bush in the popular vote. (For more on the model, go to: http://www.emory.edu/central/NEWS/Releases/bushfavored1091802188.html)

Abramowitz is the author of "Voice of the People: Elections and Voting in the United States" (McGraw Hill, 2004), as well as "Nomination Politics" (1984), "Senate Elections" (1992), and dozens of articles in leading journals, including The American Political Science Review, The American Journal of Political Science and The Journal of Politics. He earned his Ph.D. in political science at Stanford University (1976).

• Merle Black is the Asa G. Candler Professor of Politics and Government at Emory. He, along with his twin brother Earl Black at Rice University, is the foremost authority on politics in the South, particularly the rise of the Republican Party. One of the nation's most incisive commentators on national and Southern politics, Black is often called upon by media to discuss American national government, Southern politics, and political parties and elections.

The Blacks are co-authors of the award-winning books "Politics and Society in the South" (1987), "The Vital South" (1992) and "The Rise of Southern Republicans" (2002). "The Rise of Southern Republicans" documents how dramatically the political tide has changed in the South. Described by The Economist as "the definitive work on that important historical shift," the book illustrates how the Republican Party's inroads into Southern precincts have transformed American politics.

The Blacks show that fully 70 percent of white conservatives identified themselves as Republicans in 2000 when just 32 years ago, barely 20 percent of white conservatives identified with the GOP. During the same period, the percentage of white moderates identifying themselves as Democrats has dropped from nearly 60 percent to just over 30 percent. This means that to win national elections, Republicans no longer are forced to draw massive majorities in Northern states to offset their equally large deficits in the South, according to the Blacks.

• Charles E. Cook Jr. is editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report and political analyst for the National Journal Group, where he writes weekly for National Journal magazine and CongressDailyAM. He also writes a column for the Washington Quarterly and is a political analyst for NBC News. Widely regarded as one of the nation's leading authorities on U.S. elections and political trends, Cook is a frequent commentator on national broadcast news. The New York Times has called Cook "...one of the best political handicappers in the nation" and noted that The Cook Political Report is "...a newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative."